Excessive debt tends to be at the centre of most scare stories regarding the investment outlook – whether they relate to China, public debt in developed countries, corporate debt in the US or Australian household debt.
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A year ago there was a long global worry list and high on that list was China. But since then it seems China worries have receded. So what happened? Put simply the Chinese economy stabilised. But what’s the outlook for China now? And what does this mean for investors and Australia?
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Now as widely expected we have just seen the Fed move again – raising its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0.25-0.5% to the range of 0.5-0.75%, begging the question whether we will go through another bout of market ructions. However, this time around the backdrop is very different to a year ago.
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Now as widely expected we have just seen the Fed move again – raising its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0.25-0.5% to the range of 0.5-0.75%, begging the question whether we will go through another bout of market ructions. However, this time around the backdrop is very different to a year ago.
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From record lows just after the Brexit vote – government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This in turn has led to sharp falls in high yield share market sectors like real estate investment trusts and utilities that had benefited from the fall in bond yields as investors sought higher yields.
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We are going through one of those periods where it seems there is a long list of things for investors to worry about: the US election; the Fed; ever present fears about a break of the Eurozone; and China. To be sure these risks are real and in our view some combination of them could drive a short term correction in shares, but we don’t see them derailing the longer term rising trend in shares.
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Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president makes the outcome of the 8 November US presidential election of greater significance than normal.
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For the last two decades, advanced country central banks have been focussed on price stability and have played the first line of defence in stabilising the economic cycle whereas fiscal policy has played back up, focussing more on fairness and efficiency.
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The past few weeks have been messy with Brexit, the Australian election, another terrorist attack in France and an attempted coup in Turkey. In fact, the last 12 months have been – starting with the latest Greek tantrum and China share market plunge a year ago.
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In a shock for financial markets which had been increasingly confident that Britain would vote to Remain in the European Union, a victory for the Leave outcome by 52% to 48% triggered an abrupt bout of “risk off” in financial markets late last week.
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