This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats loom a little larger and US inflation rises. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook in simple dot point form.
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Two years after it first started raising interest rates in this cycle in December 2015, the Fed has increased rates for the fifth time, raising the Fed Funds rate another 0.25% to a target
range of 1.25-1.5%.
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At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
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The low interest rates of recent times along with periodic turmoil in investment markets has provided us with a reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. It’s particularly important for those relying on investment income to fund their living expenses.
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The US Federal Reserve provided few surprises following its September meeting. While it left interest rates on hold, it confirmed that it will begin what it calls “balance sheet normalisation” next month and continued to signal its expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December and in the years ahead.
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The economic and investment cycle is alive and well. Talk of a “great moderation” was all the rage prior to the GFC but the GFC reminded us yet again that periods of great returns are invariably followed by a fall back. If returns are too good to be true they probably are.
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At its core, the basic principles of successful investing are simple. And one way to demonstrate that is in charts or pictures – after all, a picture tells a thousand words. So this note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing.
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It’s now 12 months since the British voted to leave the European Union, an event that some saw as setting off a domino effect of other European countries looking to do the same. This was also followed by a messy election result in Australia, Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election, increasing concern around North Korea and a steady flow of terrorist attacks.
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Around May each year I normally get a bit wary about the risks of a pullback in shares. It seems the old saying “sell in May and go away…” is permanently stuck in my mind.
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Despite numerous geopolitical threats (Eurozone elections, tensions between the US and China, North Korea, etc.), worries about the demise of the so-called “Trump trade” and shares being overbought and due for a correction at the start of the year, share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient with only a minor pull back into their recent lows.
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