COVID-19 is having an unprecedented global impact. The contraction in activity will be bigger, and more concentrated than the GFC. Labour market scarring coupled with the structural imbalances point to a drawn-out recovery.
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This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.
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The full effect of the impact of Covid-19 isolation measures taken in Australia, the UK, Europe and the US became apparent.
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There have been some interesting developments over the past week on some of the issues that we have been watching, particularly infection rates in Italy and the policy response.
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Global and Australian shares have fallen well beyond the 20% decline commonly used to delineate a bear market. From their highs to their recent lows major share markets have had roughly 35% falls.
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The response to the coronavirus, now officially named COVID-19 remained the single biggest issue for financial markets through February.
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The past week has seen a renewed escalation in concern that the coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19) has become or is becoming a global pandemic. This is first and foremost a human crisis and our thoughts are with all those affected and those trying to combat the outbreak.
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The declaration by the World Health Organisation (WHO) that the outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019 nCoV) is a global health emergency sent market volatility higher.
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The infection from coronavirus is steadily spreading across asset classes. Currency and bond markets were the first to respond, and equity markets turned this week. Commodity markets and credit still appear to be complacent.
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After the poor returns for investors in 2018, 2019 turned out surprisingly well with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 15%. But can it continue this year?
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