Navigating local risks

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Valuations for the Australian market have reached extremes. The forward Price Earnings Ratio for the overall market has only been higher at the peak of the tech bubble in 1999 and valuations have never been higher compared with the US.

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Market Update – December 2019

View from the hill

Domestic and global markets displayed strong performance in November, with US and Australian equity markets both reaching all-time highs. These appeared to be minimally impacted by ongoing concerns surrounding poor economic data and various geopolitical risks including those brought about by the US-China trade war.

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Financial evaluator

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The Australian market hit record highs in terms of index points while valuations, using forward price to earnings ratio (PE) as a proxy, jumped above 17x for the first time since 2001. This is occurring at a time when earnings pressure is intensifying.

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Events dominating again

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We have entered another period where event risks are heightened and appear set to dominate market outcomes over the rest of the year.  Equities have a better relative valuation than bonds and represent the only major asset class where investors have the potential to make decent returns on capital over the next years in our view.

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