Recession risk continues to increase, and the actions of the US President are not helping. Escalating the trade war through further increases to tariffs and sledging of his own Central Bank are causing concerns in market both in the US and more broadly.
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The recent combination of weak economic data and a dismal reporting season has focused attention back on the Australian market, and valuations in particular. Pressures on the economy may not improve, as further weakness in housing construction appears on the horizon.
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After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year – average capital city home prices have turned up again.
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Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing.
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Hindsight is a wonderful thing and given the events over recent days it could be suggested that July was the calm before the current storm.
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One of the difficult questions for investors is whether equity valuations deserve to be higher because of the large falls in interest rates in recent years. The subsequent rush into equities has been labelled TINA as in There Is No Alternative.
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The bears are coming out to play. There is more talk in the press and by market commentators of the risk of recessions in the US and other countries and, depending on what you are reading, threats of another global financial crisis (GFC) event due to surging debt, income inequality, political risk, market liquidity and valuations.
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The Financial year ends on a positive despite ongoing concerns around the China/US trade war, weakening global growth and the Brexit saga.
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After nearly 12 years the Australian share market is above its November 2007 pre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) high. The All Ords index surpassed it last week and the ASX 200 has done so this week.
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This decade has now seen three global growth scares – around 2011-12, 2015-16 and now since last year. Each have been associated with softening business conditions indicators.
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