Evans and Partners

Event risk roadmap

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A large part of the market weakness since early October has been the number of event risks that have been hovering in the political and economic landscape for some time that are now coming to a head. Some have been resolved in recent weeks, while others are yet to be resolved.

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Trump’s Oil Slick

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Over the past few weeks we have been highlighting the growing divergence between stock market performance and accumulating macro and political risks. The growing list of risks include the potential trade war, weakening Chinese growth and funding pressures in emerging markets.

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Trading the war

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An important role for tactical asset allocation is protecting portfolios against discrete market-moving events that are hard to predict. A US/China trade war is now shaping as a binary event and the impact on markets could be large because investors appear to be assuming that there will not be an escalation.

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Roadmap to a bear market

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We recently reduced our recommendation for global equities to neutral reflecting rising risks around the political, macro and policy environment. We see this as a tactical change and have not changed our medium-term view that equity markets will continue to deliver good returns over the next 3-5 years.

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Chinese reform 2.0

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China is entering a new phase of reform with a key focus on improving financial stability and reducing government debt. Measures that have already been announced include banning state-owned banks from lending to local governments and the cancellation of some major projects.

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Spring clean in Fall

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The past few years have seen the best combination of factors for markets: improving economies, easy policy settings, low inflation and strong earnings. However, the major improvement in global growth may now be over and synchronised recovery may now give way to a more diverse range of outcomes.

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