Evans and Partners

A new era for the Fed

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We appear to be on the cusp of a radical change in the approach to monetary policy in the US.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently abandoned plans for further rate rises, declared an early termination of quantitative tightening and announced a strategic review of its monetary policy framework.

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Costs and competition

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The Australian reporting season was disappointing, with significantly more misses than beats and a large number of downgrades to forecasts for FY19 and FY20. There was some offset from a number of special dividends, although dividend forecasts were cut in a range of sectors.

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Australia: struggle street

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Australian equity valuations improved during the year-end sell-off but they did not become compelling. The forward price to earnings ratio (PE) briefly dipped below historical averages, however, the positive start to the year has pushed the market back above this metric.

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Event risk roadmap

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A large part of the market weakness since early October has been the number of event risks that have been hovering in the political and economic landscape for some time that are now coming to a head. Some have been resolved in recent weeks, while others are yet to be resolved.

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Trump’s Oil Slick

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Over the past few weeks we have been highlighting the growing divergence between stock market performance and accumulating macro and political risks. The growing list of risks include the potential trade war, weakening Chinese growth and funding pressures in emerging markets.

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